PENGARUH KEMISKINAN, PENGANGGURAN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN PENDUDUK DI PROVINSI PULAU SUMATERA

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of poverty, unemployment, and economic growth on population growth in the provinces of Sumatra Island during the 2016–2025 period. The study uses a quantitative approach with panel data regression analysis covering ten provinces in Sumatra. Secondary data were obtained from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). Model selection was conducted through Chow Test, Hausman Test, and Lagrange Multiplier Test, which indicated that the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) was the most appropriate estimation model. The results show that poverty has a positive but insignificant effect on population growth. Meanwhile, unemployment and economic growth have positive and significant effects on population growth in the provinces of Sumatra Island. These findings indicate that socioeconomic conditions play an important role in influencing demographic dynamics in the region. Economic growth tends to increase regional attractiveness through employment opportunities and improved welfare, while unemployment reflects structural pressures in the labor market that are closely related to population dynamics. This study highlights the importance of integrated policies related to population control, poverty reduction, employment expansion, and sustainable regional economic development in Sumatra Island.